AXNT20 KNHC 101150

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.


A tropical wave with axis along 49W from 14N southward, is moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are from 09N-16N
between 45W-55W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 66W
from 18N southward, moving W at around 15 kt. Drier air is
present in the eastern Caribbean limiting convection along the
wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the west Caribbean with axis along 83W
from 18N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is 240 nm on the east side of the wave
south of 12n between the coast of Colombia and Panama.


The monsoon trough extends offshore from the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 10N17W. The ITCZ extends from 10N17W to
04N35W to 05N47W, then resumes west of the wave near 06N52W to
05N56W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves described above, scattered moderate convection is from 01N-
09N between 20W-30W.


Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning currently in effect.

A 1023 mb high continues to build across the Gulf of Mexico behind
the cold front. Clear skies prevail in the northern half of the
Gulf while overcast mid and high level cloud cover continue along
the west Gulf coast into the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers are
present near south of 19N between 92W-95W. No significant convection
is noted across much of the basin. Cold front has exit into the NW
Caribbean Sea enhancing showers and tstorms in the Yucatan Channel.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds behind
the front prevailing across the Straits of Florida into the SE Gulf
and the Bay of Campeche while light to moderate NE winds prevail in
the NW Gulf.

Strong NW winds near Veracruz will decrease to fresh by this evening
as the high pressure center north of the area weakens and moves east,
weakening the pressure gradient. Another cold front will reach the
Texas coast Mon night, the move southeast through the Gulf Tue and
Tue night, then out of the southeast Gulf by Wed. In its wake, gale
force northerly winds and large seas will develop Tue morning in the
northwest Gulf and spread southward into the western Gulf and Bay of
Campeche through Wed.


Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Cold front has enter the NW Caribbean Sea tonight with moderate to
fresh winds filtering in behind the front in the Yucatan Channel.
Front extends from 21N78W near central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula
near 20N86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen
60 nm in the vicinity of the front. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate trade winds over the eastern and SW Caribbean. Upper-
level ridge just to the N of the basin is supporting mid-level
subsidence and a dry weather regime over most of the basin. To
the SW, the Pacific monsoon trough is along NW Colombia into
Panama and into the Pacific waters. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is been enhanced by the monsoon trough and the nearby
tropical wave just S of 12N between 75W-82W.

The high pressure ridge north of the area will weaken and move
east, relaxing the pressure gradient, and causing winds to
decrease to fresh through early this week.


Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings and
the tropical wave moving across the basin.

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from a 1004 mb low
pressure centered near 34N59W to the eastern Bahamas near 22N72W
and continues across Cuba into the NW Caribbean Sea. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is seen along a line from 22N70W to
26N63W to 31N58W, within 260 nm SE of the front. An upper level
low centered near 26N44W with a trough extending SW to 16N58W to
the Lesser Antilles is enhancing scattered showers and storms from
22N28N between 40W-48W. Further east, an area of showers and
storms is observed from 17N-25N between 24W-36W

A cold front from east of Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos Islands
and across eastern Cuba will stall just south and east of these
points later today, then gradually weaken and dissipate early this
week. Strong winds to the north and west of the front will weaken
to fresh later today as high pressure builds into the area. The
next cold front will exit the SE U.S. coast Tue afternoon.