AXNT20 KNHC 100554

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.


…West Atlantic Gale Warning…

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from a 1009 mb low
pressure centered near 32N63W to the central Bahamas near 23N75W
and continues across Cuba. Gale force winds are within 90 nm N of
the front. Seas are 13-22 ft. The Gale will last until 10/0600
UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further

…Far East Atlantic Gale Warning…

Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the
marine zone Agadir for the next 6 hours. Rough to very rough seas
are expected. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website: weather.gmdss.org/II.html,
for more details.


A tropical wave with axis along 47W from 14N southward, is moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 07N-14N between 46W-50W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 63W
from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is present in
the eastern Caribbean limiting convection along the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the west Caribbean with axis along 82W
from 18N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is 140 nm on the east side of the wave.


The monsoon trough extends offshore from 11N15W to 10N16W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N16W to 05N31W to 07N48W, then resumes west
of the wave near 07N50W to 05N54W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves described above, scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 15W-31W.


Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning currently in effect.

A 1022 mb high centered near southern Mississippi remains in
control across the Gulf of Mexico. Cold front extends from Cuba
to the Yucatan Peninsula with a few scattered showers in the
vicinity. Scatterometer data depicts, moderate to fresh northerly
winds behind the front with the exception of fresh to strong
winds south of Veracruz, Mexico.

A cold front extending over the far SE Gulf is stalling and will
remain over the far SE Gulf Sun and Mon. Gale force NW winds near
Veracruz will decrease to strong tonight. A stronger cold front
will reach the Texas coast Mon night, then head SE through the
Gulf Tue and Tue night. Gale force northerly winds and large seas
will follow in the wake of the front over the far western Gulf Tue
and Wed.


Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate trade winds over the central
and SW Caribbean, except for the NW Caribbean, where light to
moderate NE winds are noted. Upper-level ridge just to the N of
the basin is supporting mid-level subsidence and a dry weather
regime over most of the basin. To the SW, the Pacific monsoon
trough is along NW Colombia into Panama and into the Pacific
waters. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is been
enhanced by the monsoon trough mainly S of 12N between 77W-83W.

Fresh to strong trades are expected tonight over tropical Atlantic
waters. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sun through
Wed night as the high pressure ridge weakens.


Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings and
the tropical wave moving across the basin.

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from a 1009 mb low
pressure centered near 32N63W to the central Bahamas near 23N75W
and continues across Cuba into the SW Gulf. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is within 300 nm SE of the front from 59W-72W.

A cold front extending from 31N65W to 24N72W to 23N80W will stall
from the Windward Passage to near 31N60W Sun night, then weaken
and dissipate by Tue morning. Gale force winds behind the front to
the north and east of the Bahamas will diminish to strong speeds
overnight. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Tue