AXNT20 KNHC 091003
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
603 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A small 1009 mb low is located about 220 nm south-southeast of
Cape Hatteras North Carolina near 32N73W. While the latest ASCAT
pass shows winds of 25-33 kt extending out to 75 nm in the
southern semicircle, the associated thunderstorm activity is
limited. Isolated moderate convection is from 30N-35N between
69W-73W. Although upper-level winds are not particularly
favorable for additional development, this system still has a
medium chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm today. By
tonight, the system is forecast to merge with a non-tropical low
that is currently near 37N71W off the east coast of the United
An occluded 1009 mb low is in the central Atlantic Ocean near
32N49W, or about 830 nm east of Bermuda. An occluded front curves
away from the low center, reaching a triple point near 34N40W. A
stationary front extends from 34N40W to 30N41W to 24N47W. The
front continues as cold to 22N52W to 25N62W. The latest ASCAT
pass shows a large area of 25-33 kt winds extending to beyond 300
nm from the center in the northern semicircle. Isolated moderate
convection extends outward 300 nm in the NE quad and 360 nm SE
quad. This system could still become a tropical or subtropical
storm today while it moves slowly westward. However, upper-level
winds are expected to become unfavorable for further development
by tonight. Please read the High Seas Forecast listed under the
WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
A tropical wave is along 17/18W from 20N southward, moving W at
5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-19N between
13W-23W, and from 05N-08N between 23W-28W.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis from 21N40W to
16N38W to 06N37W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 16N-22N between 35W-40W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along and
within 300 nm to the west of the wave axis from 14N-19N, while
isolated moderate convection prevails within 180 nm either side of
the wave axis from 12N-14N. A large area of numerous moderate to
strong convection prevails inland over N Colombia and over the
waters of the SW Caribbean from 08N-12N between 72W-78.5W.
Isolated showers are elsewhere from 05N-20N between 68W-78.5W.
A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W from 20N
southward, moving W around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 07N-20N.
The monsoon trough passes through The Gambia near 13N17W to
11N27W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 08N46W to
09N60W. Isolated moderate convection is along and within 180 nm
north of the ITCZ between 40W-53W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
A stationary front extends from 28.5N83W to 26N93W. A warm front
continues from 26N93W to 28N97W. A surface trough extends from
21N90W to 25N85.5W to Lake Okeechobee Florida. Relatively dry air
prevails north and west of a line from 30N85.5W to 22N93W to
22N98W. To the south and east of that line and east of 91W, broken
clouds along with isolated showers and tstorms prevail. Another
surface trough is over the western Bay of Campeche from 18N93W to
21N97W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection
is seen from 18N-21N between 92W-96W. The convection associated
with both troughs over the southern Gulf of Mexico is being
enhanced by weak upper-level divergence.
The stationary front and weakening trough of low pressure will
both gradually dissipate today. Until the front dissipates,
moderate to fresh northeast winds can be expected to the north
and west of the boundary. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf
Thu evening, then reach from along the mouth of the Mississippi
River to Veracruz Mexico Sat afternoon where it will become
stationary. Behind this front, strong to near gale force northerly
winds can be expected, especially Sat and Sat night. Some near
gale force winds may persist offshore Veracruz into Sun, before
all areas see diminishing winds Sun night and Mon.
Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. See section above for
A surface trough over the SE Gulf of Mexico is enhancing scattered
showers and isolated tstorms near the Yucatan Channel. Scattered
moderate convection is seen over the western Gulf of Honduras near
the east coast of Belize. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to
locally strong winds over the eastern and central Caribbean, to
the east of 75W.
The tropical wave along 82W will move into Central America later
today. The tropical wave near 72W will reach the western
Caribbean tonight, then slow down and traverse the western
Caribbean through the remainder of the week, before reaching
Central America on Saturday. Behind this wave, fresh to strong
trade winds along with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
can be expected across the Central Caribbean today and tonight.
Though gradually decaying into Thu, large north to northeast swell
over the Atlantic will continue to affect area Atlantic waters
and Caribbean passages.
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the two areas of low pressure that are being monitored for
possible tropical development.
A stationary front extends from 32N78W to Gainesville Florida to
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated to scattered showers are
along and south of the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong N
to NE winds to the north of the front. Two surface troughs are
located to the SE of the front. The first trough extends from a
1009 mb low near 32N73W to West Palm Beach Florida to Ft. Myers.
The second trough extends from 31N73W to the Bahamas near 25N77W.
Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen from 25N-
31N between 70W-79W. The stationary front will become a cold
front again today, moving SE and merging with the first surface
trough. The remnant front will then push slowly east while
weakening, reaching the NW Bahamas tonight, central Bahamas Thu
night, then stretch from near 24N70W to 29N65W by Fri night. In
the wake of this front, seas north and northeast of the Bahamas
may reach 8 to 10 ft Fri and Sat.
A stationary front extends from 34N40W to 30N41W to 24N47W. The
front continues as cold to 22N52W to 25N62W. Isolated showers are
near the front west of 50W. Scattered moderate showers are near
the front east of 50W.