AXNT20 KNHC 160004

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


Potential for Heavy to Extreme Rain/Flooding from southern Mexico
to Central America

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over NE
Nicaragua and the W Caribbean from 12N-15N between 78W-86W. A
large surge of moisture will bring continuous heavy rainfall over
this area through Friday. Flash floods and mudslides over NE
Nicaragua will be the biggest hazard during this event.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 17W from 06N-18N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is inland over W Africa from 12N-15N between 15W-17W.
Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 04N-15N, moving
W at 15-20 kts. This wave is well depicted in model guidance.
Showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen within 240 nm of the
wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 10N-20N, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over W Hispaniola.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is inland over N Colombia
and NW Venezuela. Isolated moderate convection is over the central
Caribbean within 180 nm of the wave axis.


The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 15N17W to 08N24W to
10N36W to 09N44W. The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to the coast of
Suriname near 06N55W. Besides the showers and convection mentioned
in the tropical wave section, widely scattered moderate convection
is S of the monsoon trough from 06N-09N between 19W-33W.


A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE Texas.
A prefrontal surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 31N85W to the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N87W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over the N Gulf N of
29N. Patches of scattered moderate convection is elsewhere over
the N Gulf, N of 25N and E of 95W, to include most of the Florida

The stationary front over the northern Gulf states continues to
generate scattered showers and tstms over the Gulf waters north of
25N. The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to
southeast Texas on Fri and then will weaken into a surface trough
Sat. Moderate to fresh SW winds are expected over the NE Gulf
ahead of the front and trough. Winds will pulse to fresh over the
western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters each evening associated
with a surface trough. Otherwise, surface high pressure will
establish in the region early Sat and prevail through Tue.


See the Special Features section for information on the heavy
rainfall in Nicaragua.

The latest scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong trades
north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are seen across most
of the Caribbean, with gentle trades in the Yucatan Channel.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
scattered moderate convection is over Cuba, the NW Caribbean and
the Yucatan Peninsula.

A tropical wave along 73W will move across the western Caribbean
Fri and Sat. The passage of the wave along with high pressure
north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong
tradewinds in the central and southwest Caribbean through Fri and
in the NW Caribbean Sat and Sun. Fresh to strong winds will resume
in the south-central basin early on Mon supported by the passage
of a new tropical wave moving across the region.


An upper level trough is leading to scattered moderate convection
across the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, from 23N-31N
between 74W-79W. A mid-level low near 18N50W is producing
scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms from 21N-29N between
41W-58W. Otherwise, the rest of the basin is under surface ridging
anchored by a 1026 mb high near 33N46W.

Surface ridging extending from the Azores and the Bermuda High
will persist across the forecast waters through Tue. This pattern
will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and
moderate to fresh winds south of 22N through most of the period.
Fresh to strong winds are expected between Turks and Caicos and
Hispaniola at night through Fri. Strong winds will resume in this
region Mon night.