AXNT20 KNHC 141116
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
716 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Potential for Heavy to Extreme Rain/Flooding in Central America:
The potential for heavy to extreme amounts of rain exists in parts
of NW Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua, due to upper
level atmospheric conditions, from now through Friday. Currently:
scattered to numerous strong rainshowers cover the waters and the
land areas that are from 07N to 11N between 72W in Lake Maracaibo
in NW Venezuela, across Colombia and the southern sections of
Central America to 86W. The monsoon trough covers the area that
is from 08.5N to 10N between 74W in Colombia and beyond 85W in the
eastern Pacific Ocean. It is likely that the heaviest rainfall
amounts may occur in Panama and Costa Rica. It is possible that
these heavy to extreme rains may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides in some areas.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Model diagnostics depict the
wave well at 700 mb. ITCZ precipitation also is nearby, from 07N
to 10N between 34W and 40W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W, from 23N southward,
moving W 15 to 20 knots. The latest upper air sounding data show
that the wave has entered the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate
rainshowers cover the area that is from 13N to 20N between 60W and
70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are moving away from
Venezuela, northward a bit, from 13N southward between 60W and
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from NW Cuba from 23N81W,
to 17N83W, and southward along 83W beyond Costa Rica and Panama.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, with a NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough.
Precipitation that is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea
also is related to the monsoon trough.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
and The Gambia, near 13N17W to 11N26W and 09N39W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N39W to 10N44W, 09N51W, and 07N55W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 10N
between 48W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from 06N to 10N from 40W eastward, and
elsewhere from 12N southward between 40W and 60W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
The GFS model data for 700 mb show an inverted trough from the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into the NW corner of the area, and
then extending into the NE part of the Gulf of Mexico. The 500 mb
GFS model data show an inverted trough in the eastern half of the
Gulf of Mexico. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 95W
Surface ridging will continue to dominate the Gulf of Mexico
waters, supporting light to moderate winds and slight seas.
The wind speeds will pulse to fresh in the western Yucatan
Peninsula adjacent waters each evening, associated with a surface
trough. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next
An upper level trough extends from upper level cyclonic wind flow
that is on top of Hispaniola, to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Isolated moderate rainshowers in general cover the area that is
from 15N northward from 70W westward, and in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico from 20N southward from 94W eastward.
The monsoon trough covers the area that is from 08.5N to 10N
between 74W in Colombia and beyond 85W in the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers cover the waters
and the land areas that are from 07N to 11N between 72W in Lake
Maracaibo in NW Venezuela, across Colombia and the southern
sections of Central America to 86W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere from 12N southward from 77W westward.
A tropical wave along 83W will move out of the western Caribbean
Sea late today. A second tropical wave, that currently is in the
Atlantic Ocean along 57W, currently near the Lesser Antilles,
will move quickly, and reach the western Caribbean Sea by late
Friday. The passage of these waves, along with high pressure to
the north of the area, will continue to support generally fresh to
strong winds in the central and southwest Caribbean Sea through
Friday night. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the
next several days.
An upper level trough extends from the Canary Islands, to an upper
level cyclonic circulation center that is near 29N35W, toward the
Hispaniola upper level cyclonic circulation center. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean, in general, from
20N northward from Florida eastward.
The GFS model data for 500 mb and 700 mb show that an inverted
trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow from Cuba northward from
70W westward. Broken multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers cover the area of the cyclonic wind flow.
A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1027 mb high
pressure center that is near 38N26W, to a 1025 mb high pressure
center that is near 33N49W, through 32N55W, beyond Bermuda, to
the central Bahamas.
The current surface ridge extending from the Bermuda high, will
persist across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida
through the end of the week. This pattern will maintain mainly
gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds
south of 22N through most of the period. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected during the next several days.