AXNT20 KNHC 012351

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
751 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2319 UTC.


ASCAT data indicate that the 1008 mb low pressure system located
over the southern Bay of Campeche near 19.5N 93W has become a
little better defined today. However, the associated showers and
thunderstorms remain disorganized. Scattered moderate convection
is noted over the Bay of Campeche south of 24N. This system is
expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of
Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves
inland early next week. The system has a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Regardless of
development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall
over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few
days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
http://hurricanes.gov for more information.


A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 12N
southward. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N-01N
between 40W-47W. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough,
from the global computer models.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W from 13N
southward. Isolated moderate convection is noted within the
vicinity of the wave, from 05N-03N between 21W-27W. The wave is
collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W to 06N21W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave
along 04N between 25W-42W and begins once again on the west side
of another tropical wave near 04N46W to the coast of Brazil near
02N50W. Isolated moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ west
of 28W.


See the special features section in regards to the low in the Bay
of Campeche.

Deep layered ridging continues across most of the Gulf of Mexico
with the exception to the low in the Bay of Campeche. Isolated
thunderstorms firing off along the Florida Panhandle are moving
into the adjacent waters, along with some isolated thunderstorms
moving off of northwest Cuba into the southeast Gulf. Light to
gentle east-southeasterly winds are seen across the Gulf, with
moderate winds in the Bay of Campeche.

Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will persist south of
a ridge across the northern Gulf through Wednesday night.


Mid-upper level ridging covers the western Caribbean, whereas
mid-upper level troughing covers the eastern Caribbean. A 1010 mb
low is analyzed north of Colombia near 11N76W and scattered
moderate convection is associated with it in the southern
Caribbean. Otherwise, some strong convection off the eastern
Yucatan and Belize coast is beginning to dissipate. Scattered to
isolated strong convection is seen in the eastern Caribbean from
17N-13N between 60-67W. Scattered convection is also seen along
the Greater Antilles with most of the activity staying on land.
Gentle to moderate trades are seen across the Caribbean.

A ridge along 28N will maintain moderate to locally fresh
trades across most of the Caribbean through the weekend. Active
weather associated with a broad area of low pressure across
Central America and southern Mexico is expected to continue across
the NW Caribbean this weekend. The broad low will drift
northwest through Monday. Broad low pressure will develop across
the west Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico late Tuesday and
drift NE through Thursday and help to maintain moderate to fresh
tradewind flow across the basin.


An upper level trough digging off the east coast extends its axis
to the western Atlantic. This is giving way to scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from 25N-15N between 46W-60W. There are
also strong thunderstorms along the east-central Florida coast
that are moving into adjacent waters. Otherwise, surface ridging
dominates the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high
near 33N42W.

A ridge along 29N will shift east-southeast this weekend as a
weak cold front moves off the southeastern U.S. and becomes
stationary just NW of the area. High pressure will build southward
over the NW waters Monday night through Tuesday night. Fairly
tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere over the
forecast area. Broad low pres will develop across the W Atlc to
the N of Puerto Rico late Tuesday and drift NE through Thursday.

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