AXNT20 KNHC 131754
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
SW Carribbean Gale: A surface ridge will persist from the central
Atlantic west-southwest across the central Bahamas to the Straits
of Florida through the end of the week. This pattern will support
for minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight for
around a 6 hour period. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W from 17N southward,
moving W at 15 knots. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air,
which is limiting convection near the wave axis. Any nearby
precipitation is with the monsoon trough and ITCZ.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 22N southward,
moving W at 15 knots. The wave model diagnostics depict the wave
well at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air, which is
limiting precipitation to the north of 11N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N-10N between 49W-52W.
A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 22N
southward, moving W at 15-20 knots. The wave is embedded in dry
Saharan air, which is limiting precipitation along the wave.
Scattered to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-10N
between 75W-83W from the coast of Colombia across Panama and Costa
A tropical wave near the Yucatan Peninsula is along 89W, from 22N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kts. Isolated showers are noted in
the vicinity of the wave axis along the Yucatan.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 12N16W to 09N31W. The ITCZ continues from 08N34W to 08N49W,
then resumes west of the tropical wave near 08N52W to 07N59W. A
few showers are noted along the monsoon trough west of 27W. Most
of the activity is noted along the ITCZ with scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection from 05N-11N between 36W-50W, and west
of the tropical wave from 06N-09N to 53W-60W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
Broad upper level ridge remains in control across the Gulf of
Mexico. On the TPW imagery, a large area of enhanced moisture
is noted over the NE Gulf. A 1011 low pressure is located near
30N87W with a trough extending along the Florida western coast
to the FL Keys. This is producing scattered moderate isolated
strong convection from 23N and east of 91W. No significant
showers are seen west of 91W. The ASCAT pass from late Monday
morning shows gentle winds across the basin.
The weak ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters producing
light to moderate winds and seas generally under 5 ft. Winds will
pulse to fresh west-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening.
No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over
western Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. Dry Sahara air persist
across the Caribbean limiting convection across the basin. ASCAT
shows moderate to fresh easterly trades across the Caribbean with
no significant precipitation noted. The potential for heavy rain
exists in parts of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica due to favorable
upper level atmospheric conditions expected mid week. It is
likely that the rainfall amounts may range from 1 inch to 3 inches
per day, in the areas of heavy rain. Isolated flash floods are
The tropical wave with axis along 77W will move across the
central Caribbean today, and over the western Caribbean on Wed.
Another tropical wave currently located along 52W will reach the
waters E of the Lesser Antilles tonight and the eastern Caribbean
on Wed. The passage of these waves along with high pressure north
of the area will continue to support generally fresh to strong
winds in the central and southwest Caribbean through at least Fri.
Winds will briefly reach minimal gale force in the Gulf of
Venezuela tonight. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for
the next several days.
A surface ridge extends from the central Atlantic west-southwest
across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. A stationary
front is along 32N from 65W westward to 79W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from the Straits of Florida across the northern
Bahamas to the western Atlantic to 31N. ASCAT indicate gentle to
moderate southeast wind in the western Atlantic. To the east, a
1025 mb high pressure centered near 32N48W remains in control
across the basin.
A surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic west-
southwest across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida
through the end of the week. This pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of
22N. Active weather will continue across NE portions of the Atlc
zones today as an old frontal zone and an upper-level trough
linger there. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the
next several days.