AXNT20 KNHC 011152 AAA
Tropical Weather Discussion…Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat Jun 01 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
…Updated Special Features Section…
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A broad area of low pressure located over the southern Bay of
Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over the
Bay of Campeche south of 22.5N. The low is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward across the southern Bay of
Campeche toward the east coast of Mexico during the next few
days. The system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development,
the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions
of southern and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
http://hurricanes.gov for more information.
An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W from
13N southward. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from
03N to 06N between 38W and 45W. The wave is collocated with a
700 mb trough, from the global computer models.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 09N13W, just off the border with Sierra Leone, to 06N17W to
04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 04N32W, and 05N39W.
Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong
rainshowers are elsewhere, away from the 40W/41W tropical wave,
from 01N to 07N between 29W and 47W. Scattered moderate to
strong rainshowers are from 03N northward to Africa between 06W
and 08W, and from 08N to 10N between 51W and 55W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the remainder of the area, from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.
GULF OF MEXICO…
The East Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends from southern
Mexico/the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to Guatemala, Honduras, and
Nicaragua. Numerous strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico, from 21N southward between the western coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Mexico along 97W/98W.
A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 19N91W, at the western
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Numerous strong rainshowers are
in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 18N to 20N between
93W and 96W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from
20N to 22N between 91W and 93W. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are in the northern coastal sections of Belize, in
southern Belize, and in east central sections of Guatemala.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds will persist, to the south of
a ridge that is in the northern Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday.
Expect fresh E to SE winds across the south central and SW Gulf
of Mexico. The current broad area of low pressure at the coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula will drift westward into the Bay of
Campeche during the rest of this weekend.
An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 22N65W
cyclonic circulation center, through the Mona Passage, toward
14N72W, and then into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Scattered strong rainshowers are within 125 nm of the coast of
Colombia, from 09N to 11N from 78W eastward. Other scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 240 nm to the
NW of 09N75W at the coast of Colombia. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers, cover the Caribbean Sea, to the E and SE of the
line that runs from 18N64W to 15N71W to 11N75W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are in the southern coastal waters of Cuba
between 79W and 83W.
The current active weather, that is associated with a broad area
of low pressure in Central America, is expected in the NW
Caribbean Sea this weekend. The broad low will drift westward
through Sunday. The current 28N ridge will maintain moderate to
fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea through the
An upper level trough passes through the eastern Atlantic Ocean,
from the Madeira Archipelago, to 26N24W, to a 25N37W cyclonic
circulation center, to 29N54W, to a 22N65W cyclonic circulation
center, beyond the Mona Passage. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 20N northward between 50W and 72W. Rainshowers are
possible from 20N northward between 30W and 50W.
The current 29N ridge will shift slightly east-southeastward
during the weekend. A weak cold front is forecast to move to
just offshore the SE U.S.A. tonight, and become stationary into
early next week. High pressure will build southward into the NW
waters from Monday night through Tuesday night. Fairly tranquil
marine conditions are expected elsewhere in the forecast area.
For additional information please visit