AXNT20 KNHC 291100 RRA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed May 29 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
…Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America…
The Central American Gyre (CAG) persists across Central America
and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean and the SW Caribbean Sea.
This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and
periods of heavy rainfall, in general, to Central America during
the next few days. Heavy rain is likely for parts of Costa Rica
and Nicaragua through today Wednesday, as the current 1011 mb
low pressure center that is in the eastern Pacific near 10N86W,
moves toward land. The CAG is expected strengthen as the monsoon
trough moves northward. The heavy rain threat will increase, for
the areas that extend from SE Mexico to Honduras, late this
week. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of
mountainous terrain. Expect the greatest rainfall amounts in
parts of Costa Rica, Panama and Nicaragua during the next few
days. The heavy rainfall amounts are likely at times, also, in
parts of southern Guatemala, El Salvador and southern Honduras.
24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 29/0000 UTC…according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC…are 0.03 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras. Please refer to your local
meteorological service for more details.
An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W from
13N southward, moving westward 5 to 10 knots. Isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 03N to
08N between 24W and 30W.
A SE Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W from 14N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are inland in Venezuela from 12N
southward between 62W and 70W.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea, near 11N15W. The monsoon trough continues from 11N15W to
07N19W, to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 04N33W, to
01N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
away from the monsoon trough precipitation, from 01N to 05N from
03W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the rest of
the area from 10N southward from 60W eastward.
GULF OF MEXICO…
A surface ridge extends from a NE Gulf of Mexico 1015 mb low
pressure center, that is near 29N86W, into the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico and in the SE U.S.A. will
maintain moderate to fresh return wind flow in the western Gulf
of Mexico through Wednesday night. The wind speeds will diminish
by late week, as the high pressure weakens. A diurnal trough,
forming in the Yucatan Peninsula, will support fresh to
occasionally strong winds each night as it moves into the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Smoke from fires in southern
Mexico will maintain hazy skies in the SW Gulf of Mexico.
A middle level to upper level trough extends from the Florida
Keys, across NW Cuba, across and beyond the northern half of
Guatemala, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond
western Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered to
numerous strong rainshowers are in Lake Maracaibo in NW
Venezuela. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the
coastal waters and coastal plains of Central America on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side, from the Costa Rica/Panama border to
the Gulf of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Scattered strong rainshowers are in the west central Caribbean
Sea from 13N to 16N between 77W and 80W.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, are covering the areas
that extend from 15N to 23N between 63W and 83W, including:
Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and surrounding islands
A weak and narrow ridge along 28N will maintain moderate to
locally fresh trade winds across much of the basin through the
week. Broad low pressure, in Central America and in the adjacent
eastern Pacific Ocean waters, will help to produce rainshowers
and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean Sea for the next
several days. A tropical wave will approach the Tropical North
Atlantic Ocean by late week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail
in the Gulf of Honduras and the adjacent Yucatan Basin from
Friday night through Saturday night.
A stationary cold front passes through 32N39W to 25N43W to
24N48W. A shear line continues from 24N48W to 25N55W, to 24N61W.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between
40W and 80W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the
period that ended at 29/0000 UTC…according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC…are 1.29 in Bermuda. A cold front is about 50 nm to the N
A surface ridge passes through 32N44W, to a 1018 mb high
pressure center that is near 29N52W, to 28N77W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the N and NW
of the stationary front/shear line.
One surface trough is along 25N40W 22N40W 18N38W. Rainshowers
are within 240 nm on either side of the trough. A second surface
trough is about 540 nm to the NE of the first trough, along
31N33W 25N30W. Rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on either
side of the trough.
A weak and narrow ridge, extending W-to-E along 28N, will
persist through Thursday. The ridge will move northward slowly,
and it will strengthen from Friday through Sunday. Fresh winds
will be allowed to develop in the waters that are to the S of
22N. Long period N to NE swell will continue to move through the
Atlantic Ocean waters through Thursday.
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