AXNT20 KNHC 290603
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed May 29 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
…Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America…
The Central American Gyre (CAG) persists across Central America
and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean and the SW Caribbean Sea.
This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and
periods of heavy rainfall, in general, to Central America during
the next few days. Heavy rain is likely for parts of Costa Rica
and Nicaragua through Wednesday, as the current 1008 mb low
pressure center that is in the eastern Pacific near 11N88W,
The CAG is expected strengthen as the monsoon trough moves
northward. The heavy rain threat will increase, for the areas
that are covered from SE Mexico to Honduras, late this week.
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of
mountainous terrain. Expect the greatest rainfall amounts in
parts of Costa Rica, Panama and Nicaragua during the next few
days. The heavy rainfall amounts are likely at times, also, in
parts of southern Guatemala, El Salvador and southern Honduras.
24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 29/0000 UTC…according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC…are 0.03 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras. Please refer to your local
meteorological service for more details.
An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W from 13N
southward, moving westward 5 to 10 knots. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 03N to
08N between 24W and 30W.
A SE Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are inland in Venezuela are from
07N northward between 61W and 69W.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea, near 11N15W. The monsoon trough continues from 11N15W to
07N19W, to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 05N33W, to
just to the south of the Equator along 49W/50W, at the coast of
Brazil. Scattered strong rainshowers are from 03N to 06N between
12W and 15W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from
10N southward from 60W eastward.
GULF OF MEXICO…
A surface ridge extends from a NE Gulf of Mexico 1015 mb low
pressure center, that is near 29N86W, into the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico and in the SE U.S.A. will
maintain moderate to fresh SE wind flow in the western Gulf of
Mexico, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere through the end
of the week. A diurnal trough forming in the Yucatan Peninsula
will support fresh to locally strong winds each night as it
moves into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Smoke from fires
in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies in the SW Gulf of
A middle level to upper level trough extends from the Florida
Keys, across NW Cuba, across and beyond the northern half of
Guatemala, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
The monsoon trough extends from 11N71W in NW Venezuela, across
northern sections of Colombia, to 10N80W, and then across and
beyond the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the area that stretches from northern Colombia
to Nicaragua, and to Guatemala. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are to the east of the upper level trough,
within 90 nm on either side of the line that runs from 11N77W to
16N78W to 17N82w.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, are covering the areas
that extend from 17N to 23N between 63W and 82W, including:
Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and surrounding islands
A weak and narrow ridge along 28N will maintain moderate to
locally fresh trade winds across much of the basin through the
week. Broad low pressure, in Central America and the adjacent
eastern Pacific Ocean waters, will help to produce rainshowers
and thunderstorms inn the western Caribbean Sea for the next
several days. A tropical wave will approach the Tropical N
Atlantic waters by late week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail
in the Gulf of Honduras and the adjacent Yucatan Basin from
Friday night through Saturday night.
A dissipating cold front passes through 32N39W to 25N43W to
24N47W. A shear line continues from 24N47W to 25N54W, to 23N65W
and to 23N68W, to 23N78W, between the Bahamas and Cuba. Broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between
40W and 80W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the
period that ended at 29/0000 UTC…according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES…MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC…are 1.29 in Bermuda. A stationary front is about 100 nm
to the NNW of Bermuda.
A surface ridge passes through 32N44W, to a 1018 mb high
pressure center that is near 29N52W, to a 1017 mb high pressure
center is near 28N73W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean to the N and NW of the cold
One surface trough is along 24N40W 21N40W 18N38W. Rainshowers
are within 240 nm on either side of trough. A second surface
trough is along 25N30W 31N33W. Rainshowers are possible within
90 nm on either side of trough.
A weak and narrow ridge, extending W-to-E along about 28N will
persist through Thu. The ridge will slowly lift northward and
strengthen Fri through Sun, which will allow fresh winds to
develop over the waters S of 22N. Long period N to NE swell will
continue to move through the area Atlc waters through Thu.The
current surface ridge will persist along 28N through Thursday.
The ridge will shift slightly northward, from Friday through on
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