AXNT20 KNHC 282353
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
…Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America…
Heavy rain is likely for portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua
through Wednesday, as an area of low pressure in the eastern
Pacific near 11N88W moves inland. Later in the week, the Central
American Gyre is expected to strengthen as the monsoon trough
moves north. This will increase the heavy rain threat for
Guatemala, El Salvador, western Honduras and SE Mexico late this
week. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of
mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local meteorological
service for more details.
An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W from 12N
southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the wave axis from 03N-07N. The wave corresponds
nicely with the position of a 700 mb trough, as diagnosed by the
GFS and ECMWF models. The CIMSS total precipitable water and low
to mid level layered precipitable water products show a moisture
maximum along and behind the wave axis.
Radar from the Windward Islands and CIMSS total precipitable water
imagery indicate that the tropical wave that was previously analyzed
along 58W at 28/0600 UTC is now along 62W at of 28/1800 UTC.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen over the southern
Windward Islands, Trinidad and NE Venezuela. The tropical wave
will continue to weaken over the next 24 hrs as it encounters a
mid-level ridge over the SE Caribbean.
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 08N17W to 06N22W. The ITCZ begins near 06N22W to 05N27W, then
continues west of a tropical wave near 05N30W to 03N41W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S49W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01N-03N between 01W-12W. Scattered moderate showers are noted
from 02N-08N between 14W-23W. Scattered showers are also seen
along and within 150 nm N of the ITCZ between 32W-40W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
Surface ridging continues across the Gulf along with a strong
subtropical mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Gulf. Dry
low to mid level air and fair weather conditions continue across
the basin. A 1016 mb high is centered in the NE Gulf near 29N86W.
Scatterometer data depicts light east-southeast winds near the
surface high pressure in the NE Gulf. In the central and western
Gulf, moderate to fresh southeasterly winds are observed. On
visible satellite, very small areas of smoke from fires in Mexico
are seen moving into the southern Bay of Campeche, but this smoke
does not appear to be significantly affecting visibilities, based
on available surface observations in the area.
High pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will maintain
moderate to fresh return flow over the western Gulf through
Wednesday night. Wind will diminish by late week as high pressure
weakens and the pressure gradient relaxes over the northern Gulf.
A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will support
fresh to occasionally strong winds each night as it moves into the
southwestern Gulf. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will
maintain hazy skies over the southwestern Gulf and Bay of
A mid-level ridge over the SE Caribbean is keeping skies
relatively clear from 12N-15N between 64W-71W. A tropical wave is
producing scattered showers over Trinidad and the southern
Windward Islands. A strong mid-level ridge also prevails from the
eastern Gulf of Mexico across South Florida to the Bahamas. In
between the two ridges, abundant mid to upper level moisture is
being transported from Central America northeastward toward
Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Scattered
moderate convection is seen north of 16N between 66W-82W. The
strongest convection is just west of Jamaica, over Hispaniola and
in the Mona Passage. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated
thunderstorms continue to affect Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate
convection is also seen in the SW Caribbean from 11N-13N between
78W-79W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere
between 72W-85W. Scattered moderate convection is seen over Costa
Rica. Scattered tstorms are seen over land throughout much of the
remainder of Central America. Scatterometer depicts gentle to
moderate trades across the Caribbean.
A weak and narrow high pressure ridge along about 28N will
maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across much of the
basin through the week. Broad low pressure across Central America
and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters will generate showers and
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean for the next several
days. A weak tropical wave in the SE Caribbean along 62W will
continue to weaken during the next 24 hr as it runs into a mid-
level ridge. Another tropical wave will approach the Tropical N
Atlantic waters by late week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail
over the Gulf of Honduras and the adjacent Yucatan Basin Fri night
through Sat night.
See section above for details about the tropical wave currently
moving across the basin.
A strong E-W surface ridge prevails along 28N from the western
Atlantic to Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with
strong mid-level ridging over Florida and the Bahamas. Despite
the ridging, scattered tstorms are seen over NE Florida, due
mainly to sea-breeze interactions. A cold front enters the central
Atlantic waters near 32N39W and extends SW to 25N43W to 24N47W.
The boundary continues as a stationary front to 24N55W, then as a
shear line to 23N79W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm
of the cold and stationary fronts. A surface trough with isolated
showers is analyzed along 39W from 19N-24N. Surface ridging
prevails across the E Atlantic to the E of the cold front.
The weak and narrow high pressure ridge extending W to E along
28N will persist through Thursday. The ridge will slowly lift
northward and strengthen Friday through Sunday, which will allow
fresh winds to develop over the waters S of 22N.
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