AXNT20 KNHC 281746
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
…Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America…
The Central American Gyre persists across Central America and
the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean and the SW Caribbean Sea.
This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and
periods of heavy rainfall in parts of Central America through
Wednesday, which could lead to a very significant rainfall event
for this area. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas
of mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local meteorological
service for more details.
An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W from 11N
southward, moving westward around 15 knots. There are some showers
within 50 nm of the trough on either side especially near the
A tropical wave is now inland across northwest Central America and
the central Caribbean 72W from 14N-03N slowly moving west around
05-10 knots. This feature is weakening and there is no convective
activity associated with it at this time.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 05N26W.
The ITCZ then continues east of a tropical wave near 05N28W to
01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ
between 25W-38W and south of the monsoon trough from 07N-03N
GULF OF MEXICO…
Surface ridging continues across the Gulf along with a strong
subtropical mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf. This is
ushering in dry low to mid level air and fair weather conditions
across the basin. A 1016 mb high pressure is centered in the
northeast Gulf near 28N85W. Meanwhile, a trough in the Bay of
Campeche is seen along 94W from 23N to 18N. Scatterometer data
depicts light east- southeasterly winds near the surface high
pressure in the northeast Gulf. In the central and western Gulf,
moderate to fresh southeasterly winds are observed. On visible
satellite, very small areas of dense smoke from wild fires in
Mexico are seen moving into the southern Bay of Campeche.
High pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will maintain
moderate to fresh southeast flow over the western Gulf through
Wednesday night. Wind speeds will diminish by late week as high
pressure weakens and the pressure gradient relaxes over the
northern Gulf. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula
will support fresh to occasionally strong winds each night as it
moves into the southwestern Gulf. Smoke from fires in southern
Mexico will maintain hazy skies over the southwestern Gulf and Bay
A mid-level trough extends across Central America to the Greater
Antilles. A surface trough is seen across the southern Bahamas to
western Hispaniola, from 23N69W to 18N76W. Meanwhile, the monsoon
trough continues across the southern Caribbean from northeast
Costa Rica to northern Colombia. Strong convection is moving off
the coast of Colombia and into the Caribbean, south of 11N between
75W-78W. Elsewhere, the northern basin is seen scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection particularly between
Honduras/Nicaragua and Cuba. Some of these storms are approaching
Jamaica. Meanwhile, Puerto Rico and the American Virgin Islands
are experiencing numerous showers and thunderstorms. Isolated
showers are approaching the Lesser Antilles.
Scatterometer depicts gentle trades across most of the Caribbean,
with moderate trades north of Venezuela.
A high pressure ridge north of the area will maintain moderate to
locally fresh trades across much of the basin through the week.
Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern
Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over the
western Caribbean for the next several days. A weak tropical wave
over the central Caribbean will dissipate later today. Another
tropical wave will approach the Tropical N Atlantic waters by late
week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of
Honduras and the adjacent Yucatan Basin Fri night through Sat
Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves
currently moving across the basin.
A cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 31N41W and
extends to the southwest to 24N48W. From that point, the boundary
stalls and extends to the west near 23N68W. Showers are seen
within 50 nm of the cold front, with showers and isolated
thunderstorms seen along the stationary front. A pre-frontal
trough is noted from 25N45W to 21N47W. Another surface trough is
seen from 25N40W to 18N38W. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails
across the rest of the basin.
A high pressure ridge extending across the northern waters will
persist along 28N through Thursday. The ridge will slowly lift
northward and strengthen Friday through Sunday, which will allow
fresh winds to develop over the waters south of 22N.
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