AXNT20 KNHC 281051
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
…Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America…
The Central American Gyre persists across Central America and
the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean and the SW Caribbean Sea.
This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and
periods of heavy rainfall in parts of Central America during the
next few days. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in
areas of mountainous terrain. Expect the greatest rainfall
amounts in parts of Costa Rica, Panama and Nicaragua during the
next few days. The heavy rainfall amounts are likely at times,
also, in parts of southern Guatemala, El Salvador and southern
Honduras. Please refer to your local meteorological service for
An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W from
14N southward, moving westward 5 to 10 knots. Nearby rainshowers
are more connected to the ITCZ precipitation.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 12N southward between 55W
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to
04N30W 03N37W, crossing the Equator along 44W, to the Equator
along 46W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 04N
to 08N between 10W and 14W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 08N southward.
GULF OF MEXICO…
A strong deep-layered ridge covers the Gulf of Mexico, with dry
low to mid level air in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on the GOES-
16 water vapor channels. Fair weather prevails across the basin.
A surface ridge passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to the north
of the NW Bahamas, across Florida along 28N, to a 1016 mb high
pressure center that is near 29N86W, into the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface low pressure is in the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Warming cloud top temperatures and
weakening rainshowers cover the area that extends from Gulf of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to 22N between 90W and 96W.
High pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico and in the SE U.S.A. will
maintain moderate to fresh SE wind flow in the western Gulf of
Mexico, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere through the end
of the week. A diurnal trough forming in the Yucatan Peninsula
will support fresh to locally strong winds each night as it
moves into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Smoke from fires
in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies in the SW Gulf of
A middle level to upper level trough extends from the Florida
Keys, across NW Cuba, across the northern half of Guatemala,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean about 150 nm to the south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W in northern Colombia, to
10N80W, and then across and beyond southern sections of
Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to
strong rainshowers are in northern Colombia and NW Venezuela
from 07N to 11N between 72W and 75W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from the coast of Colombia near
08N to 16N between 76W and 81W. Strong rainshowers are reaching
the SW corner of Nicaragua and extreme NW Costa Rica. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers, are covering the areas that extend
from 18N to 22N between 63W and 81W, including: Jamaica, Cuba,
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and surrounding islands and waters.
High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to
locally fresh trade winds across much of the basin through the
week. Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent
eastern Pacific Ocean will generate rainshowers and
thunderstorms in much of the western Caribbean Sea through late
week. A tropical wave, that is along 57W/58W, will move across
the eastern Caribbean Sea today. The wave will move across the
central Caribbean Sea from Tuesday night through Wednesday. The
wave will be losing its identity after Wednesday.
A dissipating cold front passes through 32N40W to 26N44W to
24N50W. A surface trough continues from 24N50W to 23N63W. A
shear line continues from 23N63W to 23N70W, across the Bahamas
to 22N70W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward
between 40W and 80W.
A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 29N60W. A 1017 mb high
pressure center is near 29N74W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold front/trough
northward, and from the cold front/trough westward.
A surface ridge passes through 32N32W to 27N33W. A surface
trough is along 26N39W 22N38W 18N37W, based on the most recent
scatterometer data. No significant deep convective precipitation
is apparent with the trough.
The current surface ridge will persist along 28N through
Thursday. The ridge will shift slightly northward, from Friday
through on Sunday.
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