AXNT20 KNHC 280602
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
…Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America…
The Central American Gyre persists across Central America and
the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean and the SW Caribbean Sea.
This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and
periods of heavy rainfall in parts of Central America during the
next few days. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in
areas of mountainous terrain. Expect the greatest rainfall
amounts in parts of Costa Rica, Panama and Nicaragua during the
next few days. The heavy rainfall amounts are likely at times,
also, in parts of southern Guatemala, El Salvador and southern
Honduras. Please refer to your local meteorological service for
An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from
14N southward, moving westward 5 to 10 knots. Isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N to 07N between 24W
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 15N
southward, moving west 10 knots. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 10N southward between 53W and 59W.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W, to 05N20W. The ITCZ begins
near 05N20W to 04N22W 03N37W, crossing the Equator along 45W, to
the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the coast of
Africa from 05N to 11N between 10W and 16W, and from 01N to 08N
from 52W eastward.
GULF OF MEXICO…
A strong deep-layered ridge covers the Gulf of Mexico, with very
dry low to mid level air in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on the
GOES-16 water vapor channels. Fair weather prevails across the
basin. A surface ridge passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to the
north of the NW Bahamas, across northern Florida, to a 1017 mb
high pressure center that is near 29N87W, into the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface low pressure is in the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the
area that extends from Gulf of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to
20N between 90W and 96W.
High pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico and in the SE U.S.A. will
maintain moderate to fresh southeast flow in the western Gulf of
Mexico, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere through the end
of the week. A diurnal trough forming in the Yucatan Peninsula
will support fresh to locally strong winds each night as it
moves into the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Smoke
from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
A middle level to upper level trough extends from the Florida
Keys, across NW Cuba, across the northern half of Guatemala,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean about 150 nm to the south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W in northern Colombia, to
80W from Panama to 10N, and then across and beyond northern
sections of Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in northern
Colombia and NW Venezuela from 8.5N to 11N between 72W and 75W,
within a 30 nm radius of 10N78W off the coast of Panama, and
from 10N to 12N between 80W and 83W. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are in the
open waters of the Caribbean Sea elsewhere from 12N to 16N
between 75W and 81W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, are
covering the areas that extend from 17N to 21N between 65W and
81W, that include Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and
surrounding islands and waters.
High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to
locally fresh trades across much of the basin through the week.
Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent
eastern Pacific Ocean waters will generate rainshowers and
thunderstorms in much of the western Caribbean Sea through late
week. A tropical wave, that is along 57W/58W, will move across
the eastern Caribbean Sea from tonight through Tuesday. The wave
will move across the central Caribbean Sea from Tuesday night
through Wednesday. The wave will be losing its identity by
A cold front passes through 32N41W to 28N44W to 24N50W. The cold
front is dissipating from 24N50W to 24N59W, to 24N69W, and
across the Bahamas to 22N77W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from
20N northward between 40W and 80W.
A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 29N64W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold
front northward, from the cold front westward.
A surface ridge passes through 32N30W to 26N36W.
The current surface ridge will persist along roughly 28N through
Thursday. The ridge will shift slightly northward on Friday.
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