AXNT20 KNHC 121148

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.


…Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning…

Cold front over south Texas will enter the NW Gulf early Tue.
Strong northerly 30 to 35 kts wind with seas 8 to 10 ft will
accompany the front, reaching gale force criteria offshore of
Mexico in the afternoon, and the SW Gulf tonight. Please read
the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

…Caribbean Sea Gale Warning…

Strong trades present across the entire central Caribbean will
pulse to gale-force wind at night near the coast of Colombia from
11N to 13N between 73W and 76W, with seas 9 to 12 ft. Please read
the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W and extends to 01N15W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to 02S42W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate
convection is in the vicinity of the ITCZ from 20W to the coast
of Brazil.


A 1025 mb high is centered over W Atlantic near 30N61W. A ridge
axis extends W from the high along 30N to E Texas limiting any
convection across the east and central portion of the basin.
A cold front is moving across Texas this morning with a squall
line ahead of it entering the NW Gulf of Mexico near 29N-28N along
94W. Radar imagery shows moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms
developing with the squall line. Further south along the Texas coast,
scattered convection is present across the region. Scatterometer
data indicates gentle to moderate SE return flow across the basin.
A surface trough is near 21N91W to 18N91W along the Bay of Campeche.
No significant convection is present with the trough.

A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf this morning. Gale force
northerly winds are expected offshore of Tamaulipas and Veracruz
this afternoon and tonight. The front will quickly move across the
basin overnight, then stall and dissipate from Straits of Florida
to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed. Southerly return flow will prevail
across the basin Thu and Fri.


Relatively dry air covers most of the Caribbean basin. However,
isolated low-topped showers continue across of the basin, mainly
over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Recent
scatterometer imagery shows moderate to fresh east to northeast
winds across the southern Caribbean sea. Strong to gale force
winds are occurring near northern Colombia coast with Gale Warning
in effect. For more details about the Gale Warning, please see
the Special Feature section above. Moderate to fresh trade winds
prevail elsewhere over the Caribbean basin.

High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades
across the entire central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force at
night near the coast of Colombia through tonight. Trade winds will
diminish slightly on Wed as an approaching cold front weakens the
ridge. The front will stall and dissipate near the Yucatan
Channel Wed. Fresh to strong trades will be confined to the south
central Caribbean Thu through Sat.


A 1025 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N61W. A
cold front over the central Atlantic extends from 31N29W to
24N44W. Scattered showers are within the vicinity of the front.
A surface trough is present near 28N22W to 21N20W with no
significant convection present. The Atlantic ridge remains in
control favorable for fair weather across much of the basin.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to
fresh E to SE winds through tonight. Southerly winds will increase
east of Florida tonight ahead of a cold front. The front will
reach from Bermuda to northern Cuba Wed night, then weaken and
dissipate from 27N65W through the central Bahamas by late Thu.
Southerly return flow will develop across the region Fri, with
winds increasing Sat.

For additional information please visit