AXNT20 KNHC 180528

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 AM EDT Sat May 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 06N19W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the NE
coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails over is from 01N-06N between 06W-14W.


A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb
high centered near 28N84W. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
prevails across the whole area, with seas generally under 5 ft. A
relatively dry airmass is noted across most of the region.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Yucatan
Peninsula, and this activity could reach portions of the Bay of
Campeche overnight.

The surface ridge will move east toward Bermuda through the
weekend. Expect strengthening southeast return flow across the
western Gulf this weekend, with fresh to strong winds building
seas to 8 or 9 ft over the northwest Gulf by Mon night. Fresh to
strong southerly winds will then continue through mid-week. Light
smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico may reduce
visibilities over the southwest Gulf during the next few days.


Westerly flow aloft is transporting mid to upper level moisture
from Central America through Cuba, Windward Passage and
Hispaniola. Scattered showers are noted over the northwest
Caribbean waters mainly west of 80W. Moisture is forecast to
persist across eastern and central Cuba as well as Hispaniola this
weekend enhancing the likelihood of some convective activity,
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Subsidence
and relatively dry weather cover the remainder of the basin. The
Saharan Air Layer product from CIMSS shows that this is partially
due to some African dust that has reached this area.

Fresh winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean, while
moderate winds will continue over the eastern Caribbean and
gentle winds over the northwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds
will continue over the Gulf of Honduras Sat through Wed night.


A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N55W to 24N65W,
then continues as a stationary front to the central Bahamas near
25N74W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm on either side
of the fronts. East of the front, surface ridging prevails
anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 35N36W. An upper-level
low that has persisted for the last few days in near 26N21W has a
surface reflection, analyzed as a 1012 mb surface low near
25N21W. Strong NE winds are noted per scatterometer data northeast
of this low between the Canary and the Madeira Islands. Expect
near gale northeast winds to pulse off the coast of Morocco now
through the weekend in the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya, and
also spreading to Canarias on Sunday, according to the latest
forecast from Meteo France.

The fronts will weaken and dissipate by Sat night as high
pressure builds across the northern waters. Moderate trade winds
are expected across most of the region as a surface ridge remains
in place near 30N through Mon. An area of low pressure is then
expected to form several hundred miles south or southwest of
Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Gradual development
of this system into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible
during the early and middle part of next week, while it moves
northward or northeastward. See latest NHC Special Tropical
Weather Outlook at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for more
details. The next outlook will be issued by 2 AM EDT Saturday.

For additional information please visit