AXNT20 KNHC 172347

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 06N19W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 00N45W to
the NE coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 01N-06N between 06W-14W. Scattered showers are noted from
01N-07N between 22W-33W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm of the coast of Brazil from


A ridge extending from the western Atlantic across Florida
dominates the Gulf waters. A gentle to moderate E to SE wind flow
prevails with seas generally under 5 ft. A relatively dry airmass
is noted across most of the region. The exception is isolated
showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf south of 27N
between 86W-90W and another small area from 26N-28N between 85W-
86W. This convective activity is being driven by an upper-level
trough over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Additional scattered showers
and thunderstorms are seen over the NE Yucatan Peninsula, the
Yucatan Channel, western Cuba, and the SW tip of Florida near Cape

The surface high pressure ridge over the NE Gulf and Florida will
move east toward Bermuda through Sun. Expect strengthening SE
return flow across the western Gulf this weekend, with fresh to
strong winds building seas to 8 or 9 ft over the NW Gulf by Mon
night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will then continue through
Wed night. Light smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico may
reduce visibilities slightly over the southwest Gulf during the
next few days.


W flow is transporting mid to upper level moisture from Central
America across the NW Caribbean into Cuba and the SE and central
Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are noted over the
NW Caribbean mostly north of 20N, including the Yucatan Channel
and Cuba. This activity is also seen over the Windward Passage and
Hispaniola. Moisture is forecast to persist across eastern and
central Cuba as well as Hispaniola this weekend enhancing the
likelihood of some convective activity, mainly during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible in the SW Caribbean south of 11N due
to the East Pacific monsoon trough. Subsidence and relatively dry
weather cover the eastern and central Caribbean. The Saharan Air
Layer product from CIMSS shows that this is partially due to some
African dust that has reached the eastern Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds are over the south-central Caribbean, with
moderate winds in the eastern Caribbean and gentle winds over the
NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will continue over the Gulf
of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia through Wed night.
Similar winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras Sat through Wed


A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N55W to 27N60W to
25N65W, then continues as a stationary front to the central
Bahamas near 24N75W. Scattered moderate convection extends from
the stationary front southward to eastern Cuba and Hispaniola,
including the SE and central Bahamas. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are north of the front between 70W-80W, including
the NW Bahamas and near extreme southern Florida. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm behind and 150 nm ahead of the
cold front east of 61W. Between 61W-68W, isolated showers are
within 150 nm of the front. The front will weaken and dissipate by
Saturday night, but moisture is expected to persist in the area.
An area of low pressure is then expected to form several hundred
miles south or southwest of Bermuda late this weekend or early
next week. Gradual development of this system into a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is possible during the early and middle part
of next week while it moves northward or northeastward. See latest
NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov. The next outlook will be issued by 2 AM
EDT Saturday, or sooner if conditions warrant.

E of the front, ridging prevails, between about 35W-49W north of
20N. An upper-level low that has persisted for the last few days
in near 26N21W, and it now has a surface reflection, with a 1012
mb surface low analyzed near 26N21W. Strong NE winds are noted
per scatterometer data NE of the low center between the Canary and
the Madeira Islands, but these winds are more due to the pressure
gradient between a 1025 mb high east of the Azores and a 998 mb
low over north Africa. Expect near gale NE winds to pulse off the
coast of Morocco now through the weekend in the marine zones of
Agadir and Tarfaya, and also spreading to Canarias on Sunday,
according to the latest forecast from Meteo France.

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