AXNT20 KNHC 171732
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 09N13W
to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N40W to the NE
coast of Brazil near 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 06N between 20W and 32W. Similar convection is
also seen from 01N to 04N between 47W and 52W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
A ridge, extending from the western Atlantic across Florida,
dominates the Gulf waters producing a gentle to moderate E to SE
winds flow and seas generally under 5 ft. A relatively dry airmass
is noted across most of the region. The exception is a cluster of
showers with embedded tstms affecting the waters from 24N to 26N
between 87W and 90W. This convective activity is ahead of a
short-wave trough moving eastward across the Gulf area. The
GOES16 RGB Geocolor imagery continues to show some smoke over the
western Gulf, mainly west of 90W, including also the Bay of
The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower
pressures over NE Mexico will support strengthening southeast
return flow across the western Gulf this weekend, with fresh to
strong winds building seas to 8 or 9 ft over the NW Gulf by Mon
night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are forecast to persist across
most of the western half of the Gulf by Tue, with building seas
in the 8 to 10 ft range over the NW Gulf.
SW flow is transporting mid to upper level moisture across the NW
Caribbean into Cuba and the Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms are noted over the NW Caribbean and parts of central Cuba.
Moisture is forecast to persist across eastern and central Cuba
over the weekend enhancing the likelihood of some convective
activity, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
prevails. The Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS shows African dust
reaching the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean.
A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong trade winds
over the south-central Caribbean while an altimeter pass provides
observations of seas to near 8 ft over the same area. Fresh to
strong winds will prevail in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the
coast of Colombia through Mon. Similar winds will pulse over the
Gulf of Honduras Sat through Tue Night.
A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N57W, then continues
SW to near 25N66W where it becomes stationary, continuing westward
to across the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and tstms are
south of the front to about 22N. This convective activity is
mainly affecting the Old Bahamas Channel. An scatterometer pass
depicts fresh to locally strong southerly winds N of 28N and E of
the front to about 53W. Similar wind speeds are also noted within
90 nm N of the stationary front due to the pressure gradient
between the front an a 1019 mb high pressure located near 31N70W.
Moisture associated with this front is forecast to persist over
the next couple of days. As the front dissipates, an area of low
pressure is expected to form near the tail end of the front, and
several hundred miles south or southwest of Bermuda late this
weekend or early next week. Gradual development of this system
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the
early and middle part of next week while it moves northward or
northeastward. See latest NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov. The next one will be issued by
2 AM EDT Saturday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
E of the front, a ridge prevails, anchored by a 1029 mb high near
35N37W. A 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed near 26N21W. Fresh to
strong NE winds are noted per scatterometer data NE of the low
center between the Canary and the Madeira Islands. The low is very
well defined on the cloud field, and is a reflection of an upper
level low spinning there.
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