AXNT20 KNHC 171023

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 AM EDT Fri May 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of
Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm
north of both boundaries mainly west of 19W.


Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb
high centered near 30N86W, with relatively dry air noted across
the whole area. The exception is the far southeast Gulf, where
scattered showers are noted over the Straits of Florida. The Gulf
is mostly covered by gentle to moderate easterly winds, as noted
in scatterometer data. Smoke continues to be depicted on satellite
imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W.

Weak high pressure will move east through the weekend. This will
support strengthening southeast return flow across the western
Gulf this weekend, with fresh to strong winds building seas to 8
ft over the NW Gulf by Mon night. Smoke and haze from ongoing
wildfires in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf
and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days.


Scattered moderate convection prevails across the northwest
Caribbean including Cuba. This activity will gradually dissipate
today. Moderate trades cover the basin most of the basin, except
south of 15N between 68W-72W, where scatterometer data depicts
fresh easterlies.

Fresh winds will prevail over the central Caribbean through Sun.
Then winds will decrease as the high pressure north of the region
weakens. Fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to
strong speeds at night. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in
Central America will reduce visibilities near the Gulf of Honduras
during the next several days.


A stationary front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N61W
to 26N67W to 25N78W. A surface trough extends from 30N58W to
23N65W. Scattered moderate convection is from the north coast of
Cuba to the Central Bahamas, and near the stationary front and
trough between 52W-65W. Farther east, surface ridging prevails,
anchored by a 1028 mb high near 35N38W. ASCAT data depicts strong
northeast winds off the coast of Morocco. Winds will increase to
near gale by early Friday. These near gales offshore of Morocco
will last through the weekend.

The stationary front will begin to weaken today and dissipate by
Sat as high pressure begins to build over the northern waters.
Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the region
through early next week. A surface trough could develop north of
the Bahamas Mon night.

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