AXNT20 KNHC 170527
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 AM EDT Fri May 17 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast
of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm
north of both boundaries mainly west of 19W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb
high centered near 29N85W, with relatively dry air noted across
the whole area. The exception is the far southeast Gulf, where scattered
showers are noted over the Straits of Florida. The Gulf is mostly
covered by gentle to moderate easterly winds, as noted in
scatterometer data. Smoke continues to be depicted on satellite
imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W.
Weak high pressure will move east through the weekend. This will
support strengthening southeast return flow across the western
Gulf this weekend, with fresh to strong winds building seas to 8
ft over the NW Gulf by Mon night. Smoke and haze from ongoing
wildfires in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf
and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days.
Scattered moderate convection prevails across the northwest
Caribbean including Cuba. This activity should gradually wane as
the night progresses. Moderate trades cover the basin most of the
basin, except south of 15N between 68W-72W, where scatterometer
data depicts fresh easterlies.
Fresh winds will prevail over the central Caribbean through Sun.
Then winds will decrease as the high pressure north of the region
weakens. Fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to
strong speeds at night. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in
Central America will reduce visibilities near the Gulf of Honduras
during the next several days.
A stationary front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N61W
to 26N68W to 25N78W. A surface trough extends from 30N58W to
23N65W. Scattered moderate convection is from the north coast of
Cuba to the Central Bahamas, and near the stationary front and
trough between 58W-76W. Farther east, surface ridging prevails,
anchored by a 1030 mb high near 35N38W. ASCAT data depicts strong
northeast winds off the coast of Morocco. Winds will increase to
near gale by early Friday. These near gales offshore of Morocco
will last through the weekend.
The stationary front in the western Atlantic will begin to weaken
tonight and dissipate by Sat as high pressure begins to build
over the northern waters. High pressure will remain over the
northern waters Sun, then lift north of 31N on Mon. A surface
trough could develop north of the Bahamas Mon night.
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