AXNT20 KNHC 162300

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 05N17W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N51W. Isolated moderate convection is from
01N-08N between the west coast of Africa and 25W, and from 02N-
05N west of 40W.


Surface ridging covers the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico,
with relatively dry air north 26N. There are isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the west-central Gulf from 24N-27N between 89W-
96W. A weak surface trough is in the western Bay of Campeche,
accompanied by isolated showers. Scattered showers are over the
Florida Keys and Florida Bay, with isolated showers noted near
Tampa. The Gulf is mostly covered by gentle or moderate easterly
winds. Smoke continues to be noted on satellite imagery over the
western Gulf mainly west of 90W.

Weak high pressure over the northern Gulf will move E Fri through
Sun. This will support strengthening SE return flow across the
western Gulf this weekend, with fresh to strong winds building
seas to 8 ft over the NW Gulf by Mon night. Smoke and haze from
ongoing wildfires in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the
western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days.


Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are observed on land over
southern Mexico, Central America, Colombia, Cuba, Hispaniola and
Grand Cayman. Some of this activity may spill into the waters
near the coast on Honduras, coast of southern Cuba and the far
southwest Caribbean south of 11N. The showers and storms should
gradually wane as the evening progresses. Moderate trades cover
most of the Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of Venezuela and
near the coast of Colombia through Sun. Then winds will decrease
as the high pressure ridge N of the region weakens. Fresh winds
over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong speeds at night.
Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central America will reduce
visibilities near the Gulf of Honduras during the next several


A stationary front enters the western Atlantic waters near 32N60W
to 27N67W to 25N74W to 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection is
from the N coast of Cuba to the Central Bahamas, and near the
stationary front between 66W-75W. A surface trough extends from
24N68W to the N coast of the Dominican Republic near 20N70W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-25N between 65W-68W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere inside
a box enclosed by the points 31N50W to the Dominican Republic to
the western tip of Cuba to 31N68W to 31N50W. A 1019 mb high near
32N77W extends dry weather to the north of the NW Bahamas, east of
northern and central Florida. Farther east, a 1028 mb high near
34N39W extends a ridge over most of the central Atlantic. ASCAT
shows strong NE winds off the coast of Morocco. Winds will
increase to near gale early Friday. These near gales offshore of
Morocco will last through the weekend.

The stationary front in the western Atlantic will begin to weaken
tonight and dissipate by Sat as high pressure begins to build
over the northern waters. High pressure will remain over the
northern waters Sun, then lift north of 31N on Mon. A surface
trough could develop N of the Bahamas Mon night.

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