AXNT20 KNHC 161703

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N16W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen along the monsoon trough and ITCZ east of 36W.


Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb
high centered near 31N86W. A trough is analyzed in the Bay of
Campeche near 18N94W to 24N94W. Some showers are occurring west of
this trough. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate east-
northeast winds across the basin. Smoke continues to be noted on
satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W.

Weak high pressure will prevail over the northern Gulf through
tonight, then move east on Friday through the upcoming weekend.
This will support strengthening SE return flow across the western
Gulf this weekend, with fresh to strong winds building seas to 8
ft over the NW Gulf by Monday night. Smoke and haze from ongoing
wildfires in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf
and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days.


A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin
inducing strong subsidence and relatively dry conditions across
the eastern and central Caribbean. The East Pacific monsoon
trough is enhancing shower activity in the southwest Caribbean off
the Panama and Costa Rica coastlines. ASCAT data depicts moderate
to fresh trades over the central Caribbean, while light to moderate
trade winds prevail over the western and eastern Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of
Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia through Saturday as a
high pressure ridge persists NE of the region. Fresh winds over
the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong speeds over the weekend.
Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central America will reduce
visibilities near the Gulf of Honduras during the next several


A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N61W to
26N71W, then becomes stationary to 25N80W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along and south of the front between 70W-86W.
The more intense convection is seen between the Bahamas and Cuba.
A surface trough is analyzed from 27N65W to 24N69W. Scattered
showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen near the trough
mainly north of 22N between 67W-70W. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1029 mb high
centered near 34N39W.

The cold front will continue moving east across the outer
offshore waters through Friday as high pressure builds over the
northern waters. The stationary front will gradually weaken over
the Bahamas today through Friday. High pressure will prevail
across the northern waters Friday through Sunday, then lift north
of 31N on Monday. A weak surface low will develop north of the
Bahamas Monday night.

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