AXNT20 KNHC 161024

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
624 AM EDT Thu May 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 06N20W to 04N27W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the
coast of Brazil near 02S45W. No significant convection is noted
near these boundaries at this time.


Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb
high centered near 29N88W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate easterly winds across the basin. Smoke continues to be
noted on satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of

High pressure will continue building over the northern Gulf
through Fri, then move east by Fri night through the weekend as
SE return flow strengthens over the Gulf. Smoke and haze from
ongoing wildfires in Mexico could reduce visibilities over the
western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days.


A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin
inducing strong subsidence and relatively dry conditions across
the eastern and central Caribbean. Convection over Cuba could
potentially continue through the morning hours due to the
influence of the front to the north. The East Pacific monsoon
trough is over Panama along 09N enhancing shower activity in this
area. ASCAT data depicts fresh trades over the central Caribbean,
while moderate trade winds prevail over the western and eastern

Fresh winds will persist across the south central Caribbean
through Thu, then diminish as a high pressure ridge weakens
northeast of the region. Winds will be strongest along the coasts
of Venezuela and Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over
the Gulf of Honduras region through Sun. Smoke and haze from
ongoing fires in Central America will reduce visibilities north of
Honduras during the next several days.


A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N61W to
25N73W, then becomes stationary to 25N80W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along and south of the front between 70W-80W.
A surface trough is analyzed from 28N63W to 24N71W. Scattered
showers prevail between the trough and front mainly north of 28N
between 53W-63W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of
the basin anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 33N39W.

The cold front will continue moving east across the northern
waters through Sat while weakening. High pressure will build
over the northern waters behind the front by tonight, then
gradually strengthen Fri through Mon. In the far eastern Atlantic,
near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir, NE winds of
near gale force are expected on Friday, according to the Meteo
France forecast.

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