AXNT20 KNHC 251023
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of Liberia
near 07N11W to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the
coast of Brazil near 05S38W. Scattered showers are noted within
100 nm north of the ITCZ and west of 35W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
Surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb
surface high centered near 30N84W. This is producing gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds across the majority of the basin.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted in scatterometer data across
the Straits of Florida.
The surface ridge will persist over the Gulf today, and shift
eastward ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf
waters Tuesday morning. The front will sweep southward and exit
the Gulf late Wednesday. Winds will become fresh to strong over
the NE Gulf through Thursday as strong high pressure settles over
the Mid Atlantic states.
Scattered showers are noted over the Greater Antilles in the
vicinity of a dissipating stationary front just north of the area.
Drier air is over the southern Caribbean. Scatterometer data
shows moderate trades over much of the Caribbean, with fresh winds
S of 15N in the central Caribbean, increasing to pulsing strong
winds from the coast of Colombia to 13N overnight.
Fresh to strong tradewinds are expected across the south central
Caribbean today, and then will be confined to near the coast of
Colombia Tuesday through Thursday. A new cold front will move
southward into the NW Caribbean Wednesday night, before stalling
and weakening from central Cuba to Belize on Thursday.
A cold front extends from 31N47W to 27N58W, transitioning to a
dissipating stationary front from that point to 26N76W. Scattered
showers prevail along the front. A 1024 mb high is centered near
28N46W. To the east, a 1007 mb low is centered near 29N19W, with
cold front extending from the low to 22N23W to 23N36W.
The stationary front will drift northward to along 27N this
afternoon and gradually dissipate. A strong cold front will move
off the NE Florida coast Tuesday evening. Low pressure will
develop along the front to the north or northeast of the NW
Bahamas late Wednesday through Thursday, followed by strong to
gale force northerly winds. The front and low pressure will drift
slowly eastward through late week.
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