AXNT20 KNHC 250518

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 00N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S23W to the
coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the monsoon trough between 10W-13W and within 180 nm
north of the ITCZ and west of 24W.


Surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb
surface high centered near 27N83W. This is producing gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds across the majority of the basin. A
shearline extends from the Central Bahamas westward to the SE Gulf
near 23N88W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted within 100 nm north of
the shearline with scattered showers. Most of the convection is
concentrated over the Florida Straits, Yucatan Channel and SE Gulf

The surface ridge will persist over the Gulf through Monday, and
shift eastward ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf
waters Tuesday morning. The front will sweep southward and exit
the Gulf late Wednesday. Winds will become fresh to strong over
the NE Gulf through Thursday as strong high pressure settles over
the Mid Atlantic states.


A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Channel from 23N87W
to 18N85W. Scattered showers are seen east of the trough
extending from northwest Caribbean into portions of west Cuba.
Scattered showers are noted over the Greater Antilles. Drier air
is over the southern Caribbean. Scatterometer data shows moderate
trades over much of the Caribbean, with fresh winds S of 15N in
the central Caribbean, increasing to pulsing strong winds from
the coast of Colombia to 13N overnight.

Fresh to strong tradewinds are expected across the south central
Caribbean through Monday, and then will be confined to near the
coast of Colombia Tuesday through Thursday. A new cold front will
move southward into the NW Caribbean Wednesday night, before
stalling and weakening from central Cuba to Belize on Thursday.


A cold front extends from 31N50W to 27N58W, transitioning to a
dissipating stationary front from that point to 23N78W. A
shearline is from 23N78W to 23N80W. Scattered showers prevail
along the front. Behind this front, a frontal system is
dissipating along 27N and west of 60W. A 1025 mb high is centered
near 28N45W. To the east, a 1008 mb low is centered near 28N21W,
with cold front extending from the low to 22N26W to 24N35W.

The stationary front will drift northward to along 27N by Monday
afternoon and gradually dissipate. A strong cold front will move
off the NE Florida coast Tuesday evening. Low pressure will
develop along the front to the north or northeast of the NW
Bahamas late Wednesday through Thursday, followed by strong to
gale force northerly winds. The front and low pressure will drift
slowly eastward through late week.

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