AXNT20 KNHC 242356

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
755 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W
to 00N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 33W-38W, and 200 nm N of the
coast of Brazil. Scattered showers are also noted between 22W-31W.


Surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb
surface high centered over the west Atlantic near 32N72W. This is
producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds in the NE and
Central Gulf. A shearline extends from the Central Bahamas westward
to the SE Gulf near 23N88W. Moderate to fresh winds are seen in
the proximity of the shearline with scattered convection in the
vicinity of the boundary. Most of the convection is concentrated
over the Florida Straits, Yucatan Channel and SE Gulf of Mexico.

A ridge will persist over the Gulf through Mon, and shift
eastward ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf
waters Tue. The front will sweep southeast of the Gulf through
late Wed. Winds will increase to fresh to strong over the NE Gulf
late Wed through Thu as strong high pressure settles over the Mid
Atlantic states.


A surface trough extends from 23N85W to 16N84W. A 1016 mb low is
observed in the latest satellite imagery centered at 20N85W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen in the vicinity
of the trough extending from NW Caribbean east into portions of W
Cuba. Isolated showers are elsewhere over the Greater Antilles,
including eastern Cuba through Puerto Rico. Drier air is over the
southern and southeastern Caribbean. Scatterometer data shows
moderate winds over much of the Caribbean, with fresh winds S of
15N in the central Caribbean, increasing to strong from the coast
of Colombia to 13N. Portions of the NW Caribbean S of Cuba also
have fresh winds.

The remnants of an old frontal boundary extend E to W across the
Straits of Florida, with a 1016 mb low center currently across the
Yucatan Channel. Both of these features will drift westward and
gradually dissipate through Mon. Elsewhere fresh to strong
tradewinds are expected near the coast of Colombia through Thu. N
to NE Atlantic swell will continue to spread through the Caribbean
passages E of Hispaniola through late today. A new cold front
will move southward into the NW Caribbean Wed night, before
stalling and weakening from central Cuba to Belize on Thu.


A cold front extends from 31N50W to 28N63W transitioning to a
dissipating front to 28N77W, then becomes stationary to 30N80W.
No significant convection exists with this front. To the east, a
cold front enters the area near 31N50W to 26N61W, then becomes
stationary at that point to the eastern Bahamas near 23N74W.
Scattered showers prevail within 60 nm of the front. Scattered
showers are also seen over the central Bahamas and the Florida
Straits. These showers are being enhanced by a mid-level trough
just west of the area over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Latest
scatterometer pass shows fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
across the Bahamas and east of the central Bahamas, especially
within 120 nm N of the stationary front. A surface trough is
present east of the stationary front from 25N60W to 19N62W. No
significant convection is noted near the trough. In the E
Atlantic, a 1011 mb low is near 29N20W, with a cold front
extending south/southwest to 24N26W to 24N33W. Strong NW to N
winds prevail west of the surface low and north of the front,
mainly east of 30W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
near the front. A 1025 mb high near 29N42W is producing quiescent
weather over the central Atlantic.

A stationary front extending westward through the Straits of
Florida will drift northward to along 25N by Mon and gradually
dissipate. A strong cold front will move off the NE Florida coast
early Tue. Low pressure will develop along the front to the north
or northeast of the NW Bahamas late Wed through Thu, followed by
strong to near gale force northerly winds. The front and low
pressure will drift slowly eastward through late week.

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