AXNT20 KNHC 241726

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
126 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N09W to
03N11W to 01N15W. The ITCZ continues from 01N15W to the coast of
Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is within 270 nm
N of the ITCZ between 20W-27W, and within 150 nm of the ITCZ
between 27W and the coast of Brazil. Numerous moderate with
embedded isolated strong convection is seen along and near the
coast of Brazil from 03S-00N between 41W-47W.


Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb
surface high centered over the west Atlantic near 34N76W. This is
producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds in the NE Gulf,
with moderate to fresh winds in the SW Gulf. A N-S surface trough
is over the NW Caribbean along 84/85W from 16N-22N. In the mid-
levels, the N-S trough extends from Belize to the Yucatan Channel
to southern Alabama. As a result of the surface and mid-level
troughs, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over
the western Florida Straits, Yucatan Channel and SE Gulf of
Mexico, south of 25N between 81W-87W.

A surface ridge will persist over the Gulf through Mon, then
shift east ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf
waters Tue. The front will sweep southeast of the Gulf through
late Wed. Winds will increase to fresh to strong over the NE Gulf
late Wed through Thu as strong high pressure settles over the Mid
Atlantic states.


A surface trough extends along 84/85W from 16N-22N. In the mid-
levels, the N-S trough extends from Belize to the Yucatan Channel
to southern Alabama. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
north of 20N between 81W-87W including over the Yucatan Channel
and portions of W Cuba. Scattered showers are elsewhere over the
NW Caribbean north of 20N and west of 78W. Isolated showers are
elsewhere over the Greater Antilles, including eastern Cuba
through Puerto Rico. Drier air is over the southern and
southeastern Caribbean. Latest scatterometer data show moderate
winds over much of the Caribbean, with fresh winds S of 15N in the
central Caribbean, increasing to strong from the coast of
Colombia to 13N. Portions of the NW Caribbean S of Cuba also have
fresh winds.

The surface trough in the NW Caribbean will meander and gradually
dissipate through Mon. Fresh to strong tradewinds are expected
near the coast of Colombia through Thu. A new cold front will
move southward into the NW Caribbean Wed night, before stalling
and weakening from central Cuba to Belize Thu.


A cold front extends from 32N61W to 29N68W to 28N73W to 29N79W,
then becomes stationary to 30N80W, but no significant convection
exists with this front. To the east, a cold front enters the area
near 32N51W to 25N65W, then becomes stationary to 23N72W to the
coast of Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered showers prevail within 60 nm
of the front. Scattered showers are also seen over the central
Bahamas and the Florida Straits. These showers are partially being
enhanced by a mid-level trough just west of the area over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Latest scatterometer pass shows fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds across the Bahamas and east of the
central Bahamas, especially within 120 nm N of the stationary
front. In the E Atlantic, a 1014 mb low is near 30N23W, with a
small occluded front and a triple point near 30N22W. A cold front
extends W from the triple point to 28N24W to 26N31W to 30N37W, and
a warm front extends from 30N22W to 28N20W. Strong NW to N winds
prevail west of the surface low and north of the front, mainly
east of 30W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen N of 28N
between 19W-24W. A 1026 mb high near 30N42W is producing
quiescent weather over the central Atlantic.

The stationary front from 25N65W to eastern Cuba will drift
northward through tonight while dissipating. The reinforcing cold
front extending from 30N65W to NE Florida will move south across
the north waters before dissipating over the region late today. A
third and stronger cold front will move off the northeast Florida
coast early Tue. Low pressure may form along the front by mid
week, followed by strong to near gale force northerly winds. The
front and low pressure will drift slowly eastward through late

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