AXNT20 KNHC 240540

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N09W
to 02N13W. The ITCZ continues from 02N13W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and
within 350 nm north of the ITCZ between 15W-31W.


Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb
surface high centered near 29N84W. This is producing gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds across the whole area.

As the surface high shifts east across the west Atlantic through
Monday, expect a moderate southeast return flow developing west
of 92W through the next 24-36 hours. A cold front will sink
southward across the northern Gulf waters Tuesday and reach the
Yucatan Channel by mid-week. Winds will increase to fresh to
strong over the northeast Gulf by late Wednesday through Thursday
as strong high pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic states.


A shearline extends across the northwest Caribbean from 20N76W to
19N83W. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail north of
the shearline through tonight. Scattered showers are
occurring along and west of the shearline affecting Cuba and
adjacent waters. A surface trough is noted south of
the shearline from 19N82W to 17N81W. Fresh to strong easterly
winds will continue pulsing at night across the waters within 90
nm north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in
scatterometer data over the remainder of the basin.

The shearline will dissipate within the next 12-24 hours. The next
cold front will move southward into the northwest Caribbean
Wednesday night and become aligned W to E along 18N-19N on


A cold has entered the Western Atlantic extending from 31N66W to
29N73W to 31N80W. To the east, a stationary front extends from
31N56W to 20N74W. Scattered showers prevail across the stationary
front. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, tranquil weather
conditions continue as surface ridging prevails, anchored by a
1028 mb high near 31N41W.

The stationary front will dissipate through late today. A second
front reaching from Bermuda to northeast Florida will move south
and stall along 24N by late today, before dissipating over the
region tonight. A third front will move off the northeast Florida
coast early Tuesday. Low pressure may form along the front by mid
week, followed by strong to near gale-force northerly winds. The
front and low pressure will drift slowly eastward through late

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