AXNT20 KNHC 240001
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 04N07W to 01N10W.
The ITCZ continues from 01S10W to 00N23W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and
within 230 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-40W and the coast
of Brazil. Farther E, scattered moderate convection is seen
from 00N-05N between 17W-21W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
Upper-level divergence over the western Gulf of Mexico is
enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Central
Gulf, W of 93W and S of 26N. Isolated showers are over the NW Gulf
W of 87W. The eastern Gulf is dominated by a 1025 mb surface
ridge centered along the Florida Panhandle. This is producing
gentle to moderate wind flow. As the ridge shifts eastward,
expect a moderate SE return flow to develop west of 92W this
evening and tonight. A cold front will sink southward across the
northern Gulf waters Tue and reach the Yucatan Channel on Wed.
Mainly moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected in the wake of
the front. Winds are forecast to increase to a fresh to strong
over the NE Gulf late Wed into Wed night as strong high pressure
settles over the Mid Atlantic states.
A stationary front extends from the SE Bahamas near 22N71W to
east Cuba near 20N74W, then transitions to a shearline from that
point westward to 19N85W over the NW Caribbean. A surface trough
continues southwest from 19N80W to 15N80W. Scattered showers are
seen along the axis of the trough. Scattered showers are occurring
over the Greater Antilles.
A shearline or old frontal boundary extends from eastern Cuba
westward to near 18.5N85W, where it will meander overnight and
dissipate Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail north of
this shearline through tonight. Elsewhere fresh to strong
tradewinds are also expected near the coast of Colombia through
Wed. N to NE Atlantic swell will move through the Caribbean
passages E of Hispaniola through late Sun. A new cold front will
move southward into the NW Caribbean Wed night and become aligned
W to E along 18N-19N on Thu.
A cold entered the Western Atlantic near 30N67W to 30N79W.
Moderate to fresh northwest winds behind the front. Further east,
a cold front extends from 32N55W to 27N62W, then transitions to a
stationary front at that point to the eastern Bahamas near 22N72W.
Scattered showers are possible in the vicinity of the boundary.
Scattered showers are noted over eastern and central Cuba, the
Windward Passage and the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas.
Moderate winds accompany the front. Elsewhere across the Atlantic,
tranquil weather conditions continue as surface ridging prevails,
anchored by a 1028 mb high near 31N40W.
A stationary front extends across the Turks and Caicos Islands
and to eastern Cuba. The front will remain nearly stationary
through Sun morning then begin to drift N and gradually dissipate
Sun night. Swell generated behind the front will dominate the
waters E of the Bahamas this weekend. A new cold front is forecast
to reach the north waters Tue evening and sink southward across
the NW half of the area through late Wed. Low pressure is expected
to develop along the front near Bermuda Tue through Wed and
produce strong to near gale force NE winds mainly across the NE
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