AXNT20 KNHC 231729

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the SW coast of Ivory Coast near
05N07W to 01S10W to 01S14W. The ITCZ continues from 01S14W to
00N21W to the coast of Brazil near 05S36W. Scattered to numerous
moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is noted near
and within 330 nm north of the ITCZ between 19W and the coast of
Brazil. Farther E, scattered moderate convection is seen from
05S-02N between 02W-11W.


An upper-level trough axis extends roughly along 97W over Texas
and the east coast of Mexico. Upper-level divergence over the
western Gulf of Mexico is enhancing scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the SW Gulf, W of 93W and S of 26N. Isolated
showers are over the NW Gulf W of 93W. The eastern Gulf is
dominated by surface ridging and gentle to moderate wind flow. As
the ridge shifts eastward, expect a moderate to locally fresh SE
return flow to develop west of 92W this afternoon and evening. A
cold front will sink southward across the northern Gulf waters Tue
and reach the Yucatan Channel on Wed. Mainly moderate to fresh N
to NE winds are expected in the wake of the front, increasing to
fresh to strong over the NE Gulf late Wed into Wed night.


A stationary front extends from the SE Bahamas near 22N72W to east
Cuba near 20N75W to 19N79W to 17N80W. A surface trough continues
from that point southwest to 14N81W. Scattered showers are seen
over the NW Caribbean north of 18N and east of 83W including near
the Cayman Islands, north of Jamaica and portions of eastern and
central Cuba. During the 24 hour period ending at 23/1200 UTC,
some stations in eastern Cuba recorded more than 1 inch of rain
due to the front, including 1.48 inches at Guaro, in the province
of Holguin. GOES-16 water vapor channels show that dry air covers
the eastern Caribbean. Winds are moderate across the majority of
the Caribbean, with a few areas of fresh winds, including NW of
the stationary front from 19N to Cuba, and near the coast of

The frontal boundary extending from eastern Cuba to 17N80W will
continue weakening and will dissipate this afternoon. The remnants
of the front will drift westward across the NW Caribbean as a
trough this weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected near
the coast of Colombia through Wed.


A cold front extends from 32N71W to 31N78W to the coast of Georgia
near 31N81W, and then continues NW over the SE United States. No
significant precipitation is noted. Another cold front extends
from 32N58W to 26N65W, and continues as a stationary front to E
Cuba near 20N75W. This front is well marked in the layered
precipitable water and total precipitable water products with
enhanced moisture. Scattered showers are noted from 19N-23N
between 72W-80W, including over eastern and central Cuba, the
Windward Passage and the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas.
Isolated showers are seen within 60 nm of the front east of 72W.
Fresh winds are ahead of the front N of 29N and behind of the
front N of 30N. South of that, moderate winds accompany the front.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic, tranquil weather conditions
continue as surface ridging prevails, anchored by a 1029 mb high
near 32N39W. Scatterometer shows fresh trades over the Atlantic
from 10N-25N between 30W-50W.

The stationary front from 26N65W to eastern Cuba will remain
nearly stationary through Sun while dissipating. Swell generated
by the front will dominate the waters E of the Bahamas this
weekend. A new cold front is forecast to reach the north waters,
east of northern Florida, late on Tue and sink southward across
the NW half of the area through late Wed. Low pressure is expected
to develop along the front near Bermuda Tue through Wed and
produce strong to near gale force NE winds mainly north of 27N
and east of 75W.

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